Friday, September 23, 2011

Allianz Finance: Currency risk caused by the global decline in stock ...

Market Review : Wednesday (921) New York time operations lead to distortion of the Federal Reserve announced after the market crash on Thursday (922 days) the euro?s purchasing managers? index fell to 50.0 fully below, means that the euro zone into recession, the financial crisis to the end of the economic recovery, the market recession fears intensify, on the other hand, debt crisis in Europe pressure is still on the market continue, the euro/dollar Crack 1.3500,1.3400 two pass, refresh eight low 1.3383. European stocks opened down play is also affected by risk aversion, extended losses after opening, the three major indexes fell more than 4 percent, hedge currency dollar continue to strengthen. Eurozone plate of economic data ??span> and not expected to further pressure the euro. EUR/USD so accelerated decline below the 1.3500 mark, hit a low of 1.3425 over seven levels. Created a one-day drop of up to two hundred points dropped.

slump in the stock and commodity markets, driven by the dollar against the commodity/risk currencies ? AUD, NZD and CAD strongest gains. The Dow fell 3.50% or so; S & P 500 index closed down about 3.17%. Growing anxiety attack and the U.S. dollar commodity prices, led to the current gold and silver fell 2.70% and 9.62%; crude oil prices fell 6.53% as of press time. USD/CAD 1.0360 to touch line, currently trading at 1.0290 from top to bottom. 7 Canadian retail sales dropped 0.6 percent rate expected to drop 0.3%, the former value by 0.8%. Retail sales excluding cars from a flat in the former point of view, the rate of decline is due to reduced car sales.

EUR/USD

euro/dollar further down nearly 180 points on Thursday, the next intraday break 2011 hit 1.3384 low 1.3427 low ! Fed interest rate decision due to the maintenance of 0 to 0.25 percent, and did not imply QE3 or other new economic stimulus policy, market sentiment further pressure the dollar rebounded sharply; At the same time, concerns about euro zone debt problems exacerbated by the euro sell-off temperature.

In addition, on Thursday 9 HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 49.4, the former value of 49.9 for the third consecutive decline; Germany and the euro zone manufacturing purchasing procurement 9 Managers? Index (PMI) is also worse than market expectations, the world?s major economies slowdown worries increased hedging demand.

operation strategy: Europe below the hourly uptrend line and the 1.3585 lows plunge, the decline continued 830 days since the current exchange rate rebounded back to 201 066-day low 1.1875 to 201,154 increases on high 1.4938 Fibonacci 50% retracement of 1.3408, and the 2011 low of 1.3427 in the top, slide suspension, Japanese chart MACD keep down, but the departure from a random target at the end, if the exchange rate to hold near 1.3400, is expected to be further amended; the other hand, short target may continue to point to 1.3200 and 1.3000 around. Days to continue to focus on 1.3400 support near 1.3590 and 1.3640 rebound near resistance concerns.

USD/JPY

dollar/yen Thursday (922 days) national economic data have confirmed the implementation of economic recession, European stock markets and commodities tumbled more than 4%, currency risk have all fallen, risk aversion, the dollar/yen intraday low of 76.10 a refresh, New York time, Japanese Finance Minister tough stance against the yen appreciation caused by the exchange rate rose slightly. Japan Finance Minister delivered a speech that security will soon live to treat hard-appreciation of the yen, the speech needs to suppress the yen to buy the dollar/yen rose quickly from the 76.30 line line time high of 76.55. But then dropped again, because market sentiment is still severely affected.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD fell nearly 160 points on Thursday to further refresh within the low to 1.5326, since the Bank of England interest rate meeting minutes released since dropped more than two consecutive days 400 points! 9 Bank of England interest rate meeting minutes show the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy further the possibility of increased pressure to make a substantial sterling; the same time, after the Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates and no further economic stimulus measures QE3 suggest investors outlook concerns increase; In addition, worries about the euro zone debt deteriorated again in yesterday?s session, the stock market and commodity market overall slump, exacerbated by the decline in sterling currency risk.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee said Simpson 22, once again, central bank officials are magnified fears of rising inflation expectations. UK inflation rate is higher than the target because of temporary factors, quantitative easing should not constitute obstacles.

the current quantitative easing monetary policy by the pound and the euro area is expected to double to suppress concerns about debt problems, the trend is extremely weak, short-term interest G20 finance ministers meeting (to 24) could bring some good news. Days will be announced Britain 8BBA mortgage license, note the impact of intraday exchange rate data.

operation strategy: Thursday, further below the 2,010,520-day low point of 1.6745 from 1.4227 to 2011 high of 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5487, and refresh the 2011 low, since the 819 days since have fallen more than 1200 points, MACD can continue to expand under the action, extremely oversold Stochastic, but still no signs of a rebound. Currently the exchange rate at 20,101,228 and 201,097 on day low of 1.5344 near the low of 1.5295 to suspend the decline, will hold its downward pressure is expected to ease. If further break under 1.5295, will focus on the 1.4227-1.6745 rise of 61.8% retracement of 1.5188. Days support the concern 1.5326-1.5295 area, near 1.5200; rebound resistance concerns 1.5487-1.5500 area, and 1.5580 and 1.5630 around.

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Source: http://www.forex-news.co/allianz-finance-currency-risk-caused-by-the-global-decline-in-stock-prices.html

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